SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP054
ARLP054 Propagation de KT7H
 
ZCZC AP68
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 54  ARLP054
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  December 30, 1994
To all radio amateurs 
 
SB PROP ARL ARLP054
ARLP054 Propagation de KT7H
 
Solar flux declined slowly last week.  Conditions were unsettled,
with the geomagnetic activity highest on December 24 when the A
index was 22.  The K index went as high as four over several periods
that day.
 
Look for solar activity to stay very low, but it should begin to
creep up toward a small peak near 85 around the middle of January.
A recurring coronal hole may cause a disturbance around January 19
and 20.
 
Low solar activity will suppress the MUF and make openings on the
higher bands unlikely.  Probably the best band for any worldwide
openings is still 20 meters.
 
Solar activity should stay low and in fact decline further over the
next few years.  The latest forecast shows average monthly sunspot
numbers declining until around May, 1996, with sunspots reaching the
current level again around a year later.  Solar flux should bottom
out around June or July of 1996, and climb back to the current level
around October, 1997.  It is probably safe to say that conditions
won't be measurably better than they are now for at least three
years.  The next solar cycle is expected to peak some time in 2000.
 
Sunspot Numbers for December 22 through 28 were 52, 51, 50, 48, 46,
41 and 36, with a mean of 46.3.  10.7 cm flux was 82.2, 79.8, 79.6,
80.6, 79.8, 75.9 and 78.9, with a mean of 79.5.
 
The path projections for this week are from San Francisco and
Philadelphia to Cayman Island.
 
For San Francisco, 80 meters should be good from 0000z to 1300z, and
40 meters from 2300z to 1415z.  Check 30 meters from 1600z to 0030z
and again around 1315z to 1430z.  20 meters looks good from 1530z to
2300z, and 17 meters from 1700z to 2130z.  On many days 15 meters
should be open from 1830z to 2030z.
 
From Philadelphia, 80 meters should be open from 2130z to 1300z, and
40 meters pretty much around the clock, with the best time from
2300z to 1130z, and the only marginal period just prior to that
time.  30 meters should be good from 1500z to 2000z, and around
2130z to 2300z.  Check 20 meters from 1400z to 2130z, and 17 meters
from 1500z to 1900z.  15 meters should be open on most days from
1600z to 1830z.
NNNN
/EX